It has been an icy first anniversary since the sudden derailment of India-Canada relations. The expulsion of a senior Indian diplomat, based on a potential link to the Nijjar murder case, first brought the issue to international attention. Since then, a slight easing of tensions was followed by a sudden frost in relations in mid-October, when Canada expelled six more Indian diplomats, labelling them 'Persons of Interest' in the Nijjar murder case.

This complex international issue, which has been turned into a global spectacle for various reasons, will be examined from multiple interesting angles, along with the possibilities for the seemingly bleak future of Indo-Canadian relations.

A quick memory jog

In June 2023, Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar was shot dead outside a Gurudwara in British Columbia. Known for his bold pro-Khalistan sentiments and infamous for being a wanted terrorist in India, Nijjar’s murder caused a significant uproar, with the potential to become a major political flashpoint. When Prime Minister Trudeau publicly accused the Indian government of direct involvement in the murder, a series of reciprocal moves ensued, heightening tensions. These included the expulsion of top diplomats from both countries, travel advisories issued by both governments, a temporary ban on visas for Canadians, and an overt display of mutual distrust moving forward.

This diplomatic rift has adversely impacted the diverse Indian diaspora in Canada, endangered the futures of thousands of Indian international students residing there, and shattered the dreams of hundreds more aspiring to live the Canadian dream. Immigration, trade, tourism, and other diplomatic activities have all been affected.

The issue appeared to mellow slightly until it resurfaced in newspaper headlines with the expulsion of six Indian diplomats, including the Acting High Commissioner, for their alleged involvement in the murder. Serious accusations were levelled against them, including intimidation, murder, extortion, and espionage. However, the investigation was still ongoing when the diplomats were expelled, although the Indian government maintained they were recalled.

Loopholes in the plot

RCMP going public with accusations against a nation’s government

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police Commissioner, Mike Duheme, took the extraordinary step of publicly making strong accusations against another nation’s government, suggesting they possessed compelling evidence linking top Indian officials to the murder. However, from a diplomatic standpoint, such a measure appears excessive, drawing international attention to the direct expulsion of diplomats—a move that is widely regarded as a significant humiliation on the global stage. Although the so-called "strong evidence" was expected to emerge through the judicial process, it was not awaited to substantiate the diplomats’ alleged involvement.

This situation could have been managed more prudently through diplomatic channels, preserving the long-standing peaceful relationship between the two nations—unless the underlying motivation was, in fact, to create a global spectacle.

The Washington Post over the Canadian media

Canadian national security and intelligence adviser Nathalie Drouin and Deputy Foreign Minister David Morrison admitted to leaking information to The Washington Post regarding India’s involvement in these illegal activities, even before anything was made public in Canada. When questioned about this breach of diplomatic trust, they claimed that no classified information was shared and that the leak was intended to ensure adequate coverage for their narrative. This is an unusual move, involving another nation's media outlet in an ongoing investigation concerning the government of a powerful nation.

The preference for a foreign media outlet, known for its critical stance against the Indian government, over domestic Canadian media raises serious questions about the transparency of the Canadian government on this issue. Furthermore, the subsequent silence of the Canadian media calls into question its objectivity and independence. However, the government has claimed that its decision to go public with the issue has reduced the security threat to South Asian communities.

The Attack on Devotees at the Brampton Temple

On November 3, a temple in Brampton was attacked by a mob carrying Khalistani flags, who attempted to disrupt an event organized by the temple authorities and the Indian Consulate. The attack was captured on video, showing devotees frantically running as the mob charged at them with poles. This violent incident raised serious concerns over the rise of pro-Khalistan activities and the safety of Indian nationals in Canada.

Such incidents have become more frequent, with clashes occurring between pro-Khalistan supporters and other Indian nationals, particularly members of the Hindu community in Canada. While the situation began with Trudeau claiming that Nijjar’s murder was about the security of Canadian citizens on Canadian soil, his seemingly cavalier attitude toward such incidents suggests that it may not have been about the security of Canadians after all.

The Hypocrisy on the issue of Sovereignty

While the attack on Nijjar, with the alleged involvement of the Indian government, was viewed as a violation of Canada’s sovereignty, the refusal to extradite multiple terrorists wanted in India on serious criminal charges may be seen as an exercise of the same sovereignty and a demonstration of diplomatic cooperation. The recent open threats made by prominent pro-Khalistan leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who also holds US-Canadian citizenship, to attack the Ram Mandir, along with Trudeau’s political appeasement of pro-Khalistan Sikhs (not all of whom support Khalistan), certainly undermines respect for another country’s sovereignty.

The constant appeasement of Khalistani leaders for the votes of the Sikh community has allowed them to gain a foothold in the Canadian Parliament. However, Khalistan is no longer just an Indian issue. The situation now deeply affects Canadian politics, and that support has backfired as potential terrorist activities and violent clashes are increasingly posing security threats to Canada as well.

Potential Consequences to Watch For

As concerns rise in Trump’s America about Canada becomings a safe haven for terrorists, a diplomatic shift in the level of American support for Canada could be observed. While Trudeau enjoyed backing from Biden’s administration, the stance of the U.S. government may change under Trump’s leadership.
The issue of Khalistan has created a deep divide within the Indian communities in Canada, resulting in frequent clashes, some of which have turned violent. Using hate as a political tool is an extremely dangerous path, as it severely disrupts the social fabric of a nation, and Canada is beginning to see the after-effects of this approach.

Educational Immigration: The number of international students choosing Canada has declined, as many are seeking alternative study destinations due to the perceived instability in the current environment for Indians. This is a significant loss for Canada, as universities charge international students tuition fees that can be up to 10 times higher than those for domestic students.

Rise in Anti-India Sentiment: Mass immigration over the past decade has led to several challenges, including unemployment, high living costs, and rising racism against immigrants. Citizens tend to blame immigrants, rather than the government, for these issues, which could result in further cuts to immigration in the future.

Declining Trade and Tourism: Both trade and tourism are on the decline, and given the ongoing nature of this conflict, the relationship between the two countries is heading toward a bleak winter with no clear resolution in sight.

My Two Cents on the Issue

The Canadian government acted hastily without fully considering the repercussions of creating such a global scandal. The Indian government's firm refusal to yield, along with reciprocal actions that mirror Canada's hostility, clearly signals that India is unwilling to back down on this issue.

Repeatedly reviewing Trudeau's interviews and statements leads me to question whether he truly considered the trajectory of this entire situation. He issues public statements, only to later contradict them with actions (which, unfortunately, is not out of character for him). For instance, he claimed to have strong evidence but refused to present it, and then stated that revealing the evidence would compromise confidentiality—only to later leak information about the Singaporean dialogues to The Washington Post.

Trudeau's tendency to repeatedly refresh the issue by making grand gestures every few months, such as firing the High Commissioner, seems more like desperation than a pursuit of justice. The recall of a country’s diplomatic envoy is not a trivial matter, and it certainly highlights the future trajectory of India-Canada bilateral relations.

Now, considering domestic factors, I came across several videos discussing the living conditions in Canada. Housing, groceries, and healthcare have become so expensive and inaccessible for the majority of the population that one commenter noted, "the new Canadian dream is leaving Canada." This starkly highlights the failure of the Trudeau government, which, despite being elected three times, seems more focused on the death of a Khalistani separatist than on addressing the pressing issues that are making life increasingly difficult for everyday Canadians.

I was not surprised to learn how disappointed the general population of Canada is with Trudeau, which seems to be driving him to seek support from Khalistani groups. He is using questionable tactics to divert attention away from the country’s pressing issues. This situation reminds me of something Lily Tang Williams, a Republican candidate from the USA, once said: "When the government creates a problem, they blame it on other things." In this case, the problems are numerous, but the 'other thing' often seems to be something related to the Indian community. While this is not the central topic of the article, I feel it would be incomplete without addressing the issue of immigration and the rise in racism against Indians. The India-Canada conflict has significant long-term ramifications, especially for the Indian diaspora in Canada.

The current situation is a catch-22: Canada is suffering the consequences of uncontrolled immigration (one aspect of the administration’s failure), which it facilitated for labor, taxes, and the life savings of immigrants trying to build a better future. Their excessive reliance on immigration has now resulted in mass influxes that cannot be fully stopped. However, without sufficient housing and resources, the surge in demand has led to rising inflation, homelessness, increased crime, and people living out of their vans or surviving on minimal meals. To the public, however, the government becomes a secondary concern. Immigrants, particularly those from the Indian community, become the first target of their frustration. Videos of violent clashes and protests within Canada are contributing to a negative international perception of Indians, who are unfairly blamed for the issues stemming from the government’s immigration policies.

Racism against Indians is on the rise, with White nationalists pushing to "Take Canada Back," and accusations that Indians are taking all the jobs (when in reality, many are working minimum wage jobs barely enough for survival). This has become a part of the new Canadian narrative, which undermines the very essence of the country's multicultural ideals. It also echoes a piece of anonymous poetry titled “You Don’t Know the Half of It”, which beautifully reflects the struggle and resilience of immigrants:

According to you,
people like me
shouldn’t go into places like this or
be around people like these
but you don’t know the half of it.
The brightest of stars, frankly,
are just a load of hot air and diamonds, sadly,
we’re just formed from the dust and rock.
And the butterfly,
remember,
used to crawl on its belly
and tiny legs
through the dirt.

In essence, it means that people can come from anywhere, but it’s what they make of themselves that matters. When certain ‘Canadians’ tell immigrants to go back to their country, I often feel compelled to ask them about their own lineage. Unfortunately, many remain blissfully unaware of the implications of settler colonialism and the ongoing debates about why Canada isn’t theirs to "take back" in the first place. But then again, ignorance is a privilege that not everyone can afford.

That said, strong policies are needed to regulate immigration, as uncontrolled immigration can perpetuate racism and exacerbate the problem. However, it’s important to remember that Indians are now citizens of Canada and have integrated so deeply into the demographic that they constitute a significant part of public opinion. Trudeau fails to understand that Khalistani appeasement will only take him so far, because, at the end of the day, people cannot eat flags.

(The views expressed are solely those of the author.)